Friday, August 14, 2009

Implications of Water Table Going Down

FIRST, A NOTIFICATION.

AFTER MY PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS ON THE WEST BENGAL ELECTIONS BEAT ALL MEDIA, THERE HAS BEEN A BIT OF PRESSURE, SO I HAVE DECIDED TO USE MY PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS CAPABILITIES IN THE FOLLOWING AREAS :

  • DISASTER MANAGEMENT (Believe me, we will face worse and worser Disasters)
  • ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION ISSUES & PREDICTIONS
  • WILDLIFE ISSUES
  • GLOBAL WARMING PREDICTIONS & SOLUTIONS
  • BIRD FLU (H5N1) & H1N1 FUTURISTIC PREDICTIONS & SOLUTIONS ((Believe me, here also we will face far worse scenarios)

& other NON-CONTROVERSIAL ISSUES THAT WILL BENEFIT THE HUMAN POPULATION AT LARGE.

Am thinking of opening my own set-up that will NOT BE PRESSURIZED from any sources.


So, some News - Source : BBC News

""It comes from an unexpected source: but Nasa's just-released finding that water tables in the northwest of India are falling by about 4cm (1.6in) per year is a striking microcosm of the unsustainable strain that modern societies are putting on the Earth's natural resources.

Water carriers on rickshaw.This is a region that is home to more than 100 million people.

And they're not using the water for long, languid baths or spraying it on manicured lawns; more than 90% is used simply to grow the staple crops that feed Delhi and the regions around.

More mouths to feed means a demand for higher yields, which implies irrigation - mining the water at a rate faster than nature replaces it - a process that is, by definition, unsustainable.

The Indian government's latest assessment of the environment nationwide [pdf link] - also released this week - shows that water is just one of the resources being depleted as the population expands (tripling in 50 years, according to government statistics) and the economy gathers pace.

Nearly half of the land surface is degraded in some way, air pollution in increasing, some unique species and ecosystems are threatened by development, waste from uncontrolled urbanisation is emerging as a health issue - so the litany goes on."

My take :

  • The whole world has to rely more and more on Space Imaging (be it Hybrid, Infra-Red or other) . Image Analysis to identify which Geographical Areas are more prone.
  • DROUGHT this Monsoonal Season is a Corollary of this. The area-wise DISTRIBUTION OF DROUGHT may be a starting point of study - does it have a CORRELATION with the AREAS WHERE WATER TABLES ARE RECEDING ?
  • Even in winter, the FOG that cripples the entire Transport Network (remember trains being delayed for hours) is a result of this. What happens is - the excess groundwater pumped on to the surface, acts as evaporation material to act as a MATERIAL TO FORM FOG. My prediction is - such crippling fogs will occur in certain areas for the next decade.
  • The Government has to rely on GENERALISTS more and more, as all the team of Ph.D.'s have SPECIALIST IDEAS. One should rely on a CONSULTANCY THAT WILL INTERACT with the specialists to offer solutions.

Wednesday, August 12, 2009

H1N1 Pandemic - Startling Facts

It has a similarity with the "Spanish Flu" of 1918 that killed 50 to 100
million people worldwide. Unlike Common Influenza types and sub-types, the
elderly people seem most resistant.

Now, I am going very cautious on this, as it is still early to say, but I am
following the trends.


Check the following from wikipedia:

"The 1918 flu caused an unusual number of deaths, possibly due to it causing
a cytokine storm in the body.[5][6] (The current H5N1 bird flu, also an
Influenza A virus, has a similar effect.)[7]

The Spanish flu virus infected lung cells, leading to overstimulation of the
immune system via release of cytokines into the lung tissue. This leads to
extensive leukocyte migration towards the lungs, causing destruction of lung
tissue and secretion of liquid into the organ. This makes it difficult for
the patient to breathe.

In contrast to other pandemics, which mostly kill the
old and the very young, the 1918 pandemic killed unusual numbers of young
adults, which may have been due to their healthy immune systems being able to
mount a very strong and damaging response to the infection."

Yeah, check out the last para.

More startling news from source : www.h1n1data.com

"Average Daily Infection Rate:
20.21% per day
*Average Mortality Rate:
1.43%

Number of U.S. hospital beds:
945,199

Projected number of cases in 30 days:
1,324,150

**Percentage of cases requiring hospitalization:
5.4%
(9-10% per WHO)"

My take: An influenza is termed pandemic only when it has crossed the 0.01%
mortality. Or is it 0.05%, I'll have to check again.

Anyway,
H1N1 has crossed 1% Mortality Rate and in some countries, even close to 5%.
I think H1N1 is far,far more lethal than H5N1 (Bird Flu) , and will wax and
wane, but IS THE GREATEST PANDEMIC TO HIT US SINCE 1918.

Monday, August 10, 2009

EarthQuake at 1:30 A.M. IST in Calcutta

I felt the EarthQuake at 1:30 a.m. I.S.T. (Indian Standard Time). The slight swaying. It was mild.

But I was astonished at the TIME GAP.

The Media reported it around 3:30 a.m. That is why I'm awake now. I saw the Media Flash.

They're reporting a Richter Scale 7.7 Epicentre 130 kms as of 3:30 a.m. from Andamans.

Now, I can't predict tsunamis. But when the Tsunami hit on Boxer's Day, I KNEW IT WAS A TSUNAMI, NOT A TIDAL WAVE WITHIN 30 MINUTES OF IT HITTING.

How ? It's Elementary.

The waves, you see, destroyed a 1500 year temple. That meant that IT WAS A BIG ONE.
IN THIS CASE ALSO, I SHOULD WATCH FOR SOME SIGNS ON SOME HISTORICAL SCALE.

PostNote: I will write more in my other blogs on how I developed an unique way of Predictive Analysis of Major Disasters after the Tsunami of 2004 which had it's epicentre near Banda Aceh.