Burma - A Case Study of a Totalitarian Military Junta

Do see my earlier posting on Myanmar___boycotting elections by Suu Kyi may be a historical blunder.

Once the world's top rice producer, it now faces severe food crisis (read rice production crisis) due to mishandling of the food distribution system by the military junta.

Reason : Totalitarianism leads to maximum corruption. Which leads to total disruption of all infrastructure.

Quoting from wikipedia:
"Today, Burma lacks adequate infrastructure. Goods travel primarily across the Burmese-Thai border, whence most illegal drugs are exported, and along the Ayeyarwady River. Railroads are old and rudimentary, with few repairs since their construction in the 1800s.^[16] Highways are normally unpaved, except in the major cities.^[16] Energy shortages are common throughout the country including in Yangon. Burma is also the world's second largest producer of opium, accounting for 8% of entire world production"

Myanmar Elections

My take is Politics nowadays should not be approached emotionally, but rather practically.
It's difficult to manage even a team of 20 people using your emotions, so how can you manage the destiny of millions without coolly using your brains, and brains only ?

Take the recent Myanmar elections....Aung San Suu Ki's NLD party had this ONE SHOT to win the elections, and free the country from MILITARY RULE.

But it's boycotting the elections.

HISTORICAL POLITICAL BLUNDER, I SAY

Here's quoting Reuters:
"

YANGON (Reuters) - An election boycott by democracy icon Aung San Suu Ki's party is a gamble that could backfire, some Burmese in Myanmar's largest city said on Tuesday, though others backed the move.

Members of the National League for Democracy party (NLD) voted unanimously on Monday to skip the country's first election in two decades to send out a strong message that the army-orchestrated political process was "unjust" and "unfair.

But some said an opt-out by democracy's brightest ray of hope in the junta-ruled country was foolhardy and played into the hands of power-hungry generals.

"I'm so sorry the NLD used their hearts, not their heads. It was an irretrievable policy blunder," said a high school headmaster in Yangon."

35000 colleges mean opportunities for entrepreneurs

JU'er bondhugan...there is going to be a HUGE EXPANSION IN INTAKE OF STUDENTS. About 35,ooo+ collegea to be built.
This translates into GREAT OPPORTUNITIES not only for Teachers, but for small entrepreneurs like us, in the field of:
1. Book Publishing
2. Content Development.
3. Part-time Teaching Consultants.

Incidentally, 2 of our books have been published -
"Elements of Quantum Mechanics" by Dr. Binayak Dutta-Roy Edited - Debu
and into publication - "Basic Physics for Engineers" by the 2 of us.


Quoting Kapil Sibal's great initiative :

" Union Human Resource and Development (HRD) Minister Kapil Sibal on Wednesday said that India needs at least 800 more universities and over 35,000 colleges in the coming ten years to add to the percentage of students going for higher education.

At present 12.4 percent of students go for higher education from the country, he claimed.

"India has about 480 university and about 22,000 colleges. If we were to increase that figure of 12 percent to 30 percent, we will need another 800 to a thousand universities in the next ten years," said Sibal.

"We will need another 35,000 colleges in the next ten years. We are still below 40 percent which I think is critical," he added.

Speaking at the first contact group meeting of Parliamentarians for Education of the United Nations Educational Scientific and Cultural Organsiation (UNESCO) South Asia Cluster, Sibal highlighted the importance of human resource development.

Sibal said when the global economy is not doing well and the stock market is on decline, the facts related to importance of education in a developing economy should be realised."

LOOKING FORWARD TO COLLABORATIVE PROJECTS / IDEAS WITH ALL YOU J.U. GUYS.

DEVASTATING FIRE IN PARK STREET BUILDING

Today's fire at Stephen House was probably the most devastating one witnessed in Calcutta. We all have fond memories of Flury's , Peter Cat. Mocambo and Music World.

But it was a real shocker that this 150 year old building ravaged by the flames that trapped 100+ people at one point.

Since this post goes out to all you people, aren't we all reminded of an incident in Chitradurga ?

Kire Aloke....

Implications of Water Table Going Down

FIRST, A NOTIFICATION.

AFTER MY PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS ON THE WEST BENGAL ELECTIONS BEAT ALL MEDIA, THERE HAS BEEN A BIT OF PRESSURE, SO I HAVE DECIDED TO USE MY PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS CAPABILITIES IN THE FOLLOWING AREAS :

• DISASTER MANAGEMENT (Believe me, we will face worse and worser Disasters)
  
• ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION ISSUES & PREDICTIONS
• WILDLIFE ISSUES
• GLOBAL WARMING PREDICTIONS & SOLUTIONS
• BIRD FLU (H5N1) & H1N1 FUTURISTIC PREDICTIONS & SOLUTIONS ((Believe me, here also we will face far worse scenarios)
  

& other NON-CONTROVERSIAL ISSUES THAT WILL BENEFIT THE HUMAN POPULATION AT LARGE.

Am thinking of opening my own set-up that will NOT BE PRESSURIZED from any sources.


So, some News - Source : BBC News

""It comes from an unexpected source: but Nasa's just-released finding that water tables in the northwest of India are falling by about 4cm (1.6in) per year is a striking microcosm of the unsustainable strain that modern societies are putting on the Earth's natural resources.

Water carriers on rickshaw.This is a region that is home to more than 100 million people.

And they're not using the water for long, languid baths or spraying it on manicured lawns; more than 90% is used simply to grow the staple crops that feed Delhi and the regions around.

More mouths to feed means a demand for higher yields, which implies irrigation - mining the water at a rate faster than nature replaces it - a process that is, by definition, unsustainable.

The Indian government's latest assessment of the environment nationwide [pdf link] - also released this week - shows that water is just one of the resources being depleted as the population expands (tripling in 50 years, according to government statistics) and the economy gathers pace.

Nearly half of the land surface is degraded in some way, air pollution in increasing, some unique species and ecosystems are threatened by development, waste from uncontrolled urbanisation is emerging as a health issue - so the litany goes on."

My take :

• The whole world has to rely more and more on Space Imaging (be it Hybrid, Infra-Red or other) . Image Analysis to identify which Geographical Areas are more prone.
• DROUGHT this Monsoonal Season is a Corollary of this. The area-wise DISTRIBUTION OF DROUGHT may be a starting point of study - does it have a CORRELATION with the AREAS WHERE WATER TABLES ARE RECEDING ?
  
• Even in winter, the FOG that cripples the entire Transport Network (remember trains being delayed for hours) is a result of this. What happens is - the excess groundwater pumped on to the surface, acts as evaporation material to act as a MATERIAL TO FORM FOG. My prediction is - such crippling fogs will occur in certain areas for the next decade.
  
• The Government has to rely on GENERALISTS more and more, as all the team of Ph.D.'s have SPECIALIST IDEAS. One should rely on a CONSULTANCY THAT WILL INTERACT with the specialists to offer solutions.

H1N1 Pandemic - Startling Facts

It has a similarity with the "Spanish Flu" of 1918 that killed 50 to 100
million people worldwide. Unlike Common Influenza types and sub-types, the
elderly people seem most resistant.

Now, I am going very cautious on this, as it is still early to say, but I am
following the trends.

Check the following from wikipedia:

"The 1918 flu caused an unusual number of deaths, possibly due to it causing
a cytokine storm in the body.[5][6] (The current H5N1 bird flu, also an
Influenza A virus, has a similar effect.)[7]

The Spanish flu virus infected lung cells, leading to overstimulation of the
immune system via release of cytokines into the lung tissue. This leads to
extensive leukocyte migration towards the lungs, causing destruction of lung
tissue and secretion of liquid into the organ. This makes it difficult for
the patient to breathe.

In contrast to other pandemics, which mostly kill the
old and the very young, the 1918 pandemic killed unusual numbers of young
adults, which may have been due to their healthy immune systems being able to
mount a very strong and damaging response to the infection."

Yeah, check out the last para.

More startling news from source : www.h1n1data.com

"Average Daily Infection Rate:
20.21% per day
*Average Mortality Rate:
1.43%

Number of U.S. hospital beds:
945,199

Projected number of cases in 30 days:
1,324,150

**Percentage of cases requiring hospitalization:
5.4%
(9-10% per WHO)"

My take: An influenza is termed pandemic only when it has crossed the 0.01%
mortality. Or is it 0.05%, I'll have to check again.

Anyway,
H1N1 has crossed 1% Mortality Rate and in some countries, even close to 5%.
I think H1N1 is far,far more lethal than H5N1 (Bird Flu) , and will wax and
wane, but IS THE GREATEST PANDEMIC TO HIT US SINCE 1918.

EarthQuake at 1:30 A.M. IST in Calcutta

I felt the EarthQuake at 1:30 a.m. I.S.T. (Indian Standard Time). The slight swaying. It was mild.

But I was astonished at the TIME GAP.

The Media reported it around 3:30 a.m. That is why I'm awake now. I saw the Media Flash.

They're reporting a Richter Scale 7.7 Epicentre 130 kms as of 3:30 a.m. from Andamans.

Now, I can't predict tsunamis. But when the Tsunami hit on Boxer's Day, I KNEW IT WAS A TSUNAMI, NOT A TIDAL WAVE WITHIN 30 MINUTES OF IT HITTING.

How ? It's Elementary.

The waves, you see, destroyed a 1500 year temple. That meant that IT WAS A BIG ONE.
IN THIS CASE ALSO, I SHOULD WATCH FOR SOME SIGNS ON SOME HISTORICAL SCALE.

PostNote: I will write more in my other blogs on how I developed an unique way of Predictive Analysis of Major Disasters after the Tsunami of 2004 which had it's epicentre near Banda Aceh.

My Prediction Came True for Mumbai

You see, in developed countries if there is a probability of a Disaster occuring, there is:
Advisory,Watch,Warning.

It is this vigilance that saves lives. If it doesn't come true, you are ridiculed.
If it comes true, people look at you with disdain - did this person bring this upon us.
Such is Human Nature.

My prediction made on 22nd July can be thought of as an Advisory. Based on a few parameters.
It did not come true for Calcutta.
But it came true for Mumbai !

HIGHEST TIDES IN 100 YEARS WERE EXPECTED !

Thank God, the people were moved into safe areas.

Chance of a High Tide Today ? Are we Ready ?

I'm saying there could just be a 10% chance of a bad High Tide coming in Today.

But are we prepared on this Day of Total Solar Eclipse . Now, I havent' doen any research, but it's a split-second thought that flashed thru'. Take all the parameters that are today :

• New Moon
• Total Solar Eclipse
• A steady drizzling rain adding to the steady input into the Hooghly River
• Surge coming up through the uniquely funnel-shaped Ganges Delta
• Embankments thar are not yet repaired. Note : It is also not humanly possible.
• Data from Kolkata Port Trust

Source : http://www.kolkataporttrust.gov.in/BORE-TIDE%20YEAR%202009.pdf

July 21 shows 6 days of Maximum Range 5.05 Tide.

Old News but Golden News

This appeared in the Indian Express . Way back in June 2008.

Maybe I missed it. That's why I was way off mark in my India Lok Sabha Congress calculations.

Though in West Bengal, INC Strategy struck me as BRILLIANT, JUST BRILLIANT, the day I saw the INC - TMC Samjhauta come through.

Anyway, here's that piece of Old is Gold News -

"

The Group to Look into Future Challenges, which made the proposal in its report on intra-party reforms recently, was of the view that parties like the BJP did better in recent elections because Sangh Parivar “cadres” were able to reach out to people door-to-door, while the Congress remained hamstrung banking on its candidates’ individual abilities and resources to pull it off. The same was true for the cadre-based Left in West Bengal, Kerala and Tripura.

“Now our campaigns are mainly candidate-oriented. We want to make them party-oriented. That’s why the need for committed workers or cadres who can do door-to-door campaigning instead of organising meetings for the candidate or big party leaders,” said a member of the Future Challenges Group headed by M Veerappa Moily."

Am reading some stuff on this Group of Rahul Gandhi + Dr. Jairam Ramesh + V. Moily and others that's doing brilliant stuff. More I read more interesting it seems.

Reintroducing the Asiatic Cheetah back into India

As we all know, the Indian (Asiatic) Cheetah became extinct from the grasslands of India way back in the 1950's , as far as I know. Now, here's a piece of great News. There are plans to re-introduce the Asiatic Cheetah.

Source: "www.timesonline.co.uk"

"Rhys Blakely in Mumbai

The Mogul emperor Akbar was said to own a thousand of the beasts as part of his 16th-century hunting retinue. Since then, however, India’s cheetahs have turned from hunter to quarry — the last three known were shot by the Maharajah of Surguja in 1947.

That may now change, with plans revealed by the Indian Government to reintroduce the world’s fastest land animal to the sub-continent.

A meeting of international experts is to be held in Rajasthan in September. It will draw up a preliminary budget, likely to be millions of pounds, to cover the import of cheetahs from Africa and the foundation of a “breeding nucleus” site, from which the animals can be introduced to other areas of India.

“We have to get [cheetahs] from abroad to repopulate the species. We soon hope to do so,” said Jairam Ramesh, the Minister of State for Environment and Forests."

Debajyoti Dutta Roy's personal take :

This is an excellent move. Hats off to Jairam Ramesh.

But all wildlife and environmental enthusiasts have to keep many parameters in mind:

• The cheetah flourishes in uninhabited grasslands. So, one has to choose a locale where there is minimum human population.
• One has to study the FOOD PYRAMID. If the base, that is, the grasslands are abundant, one can introduce deers to sambars to the cheetah's natural prey.
• So, the natural prey of the Asiatic Cheetah flourishes.
• The cheetah has a great time. But one has to be also careful that it is not threatened by other predators bigger than it is. Or pack predators like the hyena or indian wild dogs .."dholes" they're called, as far as I remember.
• One has to study the habitat where the Asiatic Lion is still surviving. These are, as far as I remember, from an excellent site felidtag (Cat Specialist Group) - Iran, parts of Saudi Arabia, etc. Congrats to these countries for still preserving the Asiatic Cheetah.

Hope the program succeeds.

One can also have active monitoring / audiovisuals to generate interest amongst the common people.

Without disturbing the Cheetah, that is.

Yaaaawn.

$4 Trillion Deficit ...what does it mean ?

That's the amount banks & other Financial Institutions face vis a vis value of their holdings..
NPA, Written-off debts, debts..what more..dunno the specs..
But..

? We could see Today..which was the Future..as of say 2005
Funny thing is...the Answer was there..Open Source Info..
In the Net..

A Few people gave hints..
like the
Oracle of Omaha

Now, here's a riddler:
Next was really hard-work..in the unconventional sense tho..4-7 hrs/day..just exercising da gray cells

Globalized solutions for a sick company

We all love Satyam and would hate to see it crumble..in fact this chain is credited with the starting of the "cybercafe revolution"..

In this globalized world, such mergers are welcome. I wonder when the Foreign Print Media is coming...it'll really add a "zing" to thingzz..

Source:

The Hindu Business Line

"Our Bureau
Hyderabad, March 1 Bidding for Satyam Computer Services will not just be restricted to domestic companies but will also be open to international companies.
“International competitive bidding will be followed and anybody can bid for the company subject to the procedure being laid out by the board members of Satyam,” Mr Prem Chand Gupta, Union Minister for Corporate Affairs, told mediapersons on the sidelines of a programme here on Sunday.
He added that the Government would like that there be a healthy and transparent competition among all the bidders.
The Minister also said that the process of calling for bids to find a strategic investor for Satyam is the work of the company’s board.
“The board has appointed advisors and is discussing the procedure. The Government’s desire is only that the whole process be done in a transparent method keeping in mind the interest of the employees, shareholders and clients,” Mr Gupta added.
He said that the process of finding a strategic investor will not take too long and though it was difficult to exactly pinpoint the timeframe, a decision is likely to be taken on the subject in the few next weeks.
Mr Gupta was here to lay the foundation stone for a new building of his Ministry on the city outskirts. The Corporate Bhawan with an office space of 45,000 sq ft will house the offices of the Registrar of Companies, Official Liquidator, the National Company Law Tribunal, among others.
The premises is being constructed as part of the upgradation of the existing infrastructure of the Ministry in various parts of the country and will be completed at a cost of Rs 20 crore.Maytas issue
Speaking on Maytas argument that the Ministry need not supersede its board, Mr Gupta said that the Company Law Board was a quasi-judicial authority and they were the best judge of the judicial process and, “we will honour whatever they decide”.
“The move to supersede the board of Maytas was based on the interim report of the Serious Fraud Investigation Office (SFIO),” he added.
The Company Law Board (CLB) on Friday said that it would appoint four more directors including a Chairman on the board of Maytas Infra Ltd. This follows Maytas Infra accepting the CLB suggestion made at the hearing for inducting more directors on the company."

Record Low in U.S. new home construction..

That's what I read in the News...

and that's since statistics were being made available since 1959 !

This is a deep pointer to the state of the world's largest economy

Loan - mania basic cause for ECONOMIC BREAKDOWN

Loan-mania has hit almost 90% of the younger generation...almost 90% are running on loans...

It's elementary to see whu the Global Economy is running in DEFICIT..

Found this in Reuters.com :

"By Patrick Rucker
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - A $300 billion federal program meant to prevent foreclosures is doing almost nothing to aid U.S. homeowners, but it could become effective if Washington slashes cumbersome red tape, the nation's top housing policymaker said on Monday.
At issue is the Hope for Homeowners program created by Congress in July to help 400,000 troubled homeowners secure a new loan.
The program has aided fewer than 1,000 borrowers since it began in October and it is a flop with both lenders and borrowers discouraged by its excessive costs and paperwork, said Housing and Urban Development Secretary Steve Preston.
"This program has not had any relevant impact yet," he told Reuters in an interview.
"It is a tiny trickle," Preston said of the volume of loans pushed through the program. "Hope for Homeowners would reach a lot more people if the fees were to come down somewhat and if we were to simplify some of the administrative requirements."

One finds amazing figures/numbers in a certain World Fact Book

Lord Have Mercy...things are Breaking, literally..

In this..

City of Joy

I seriously think people get some kind of a "kick" ...a high...
...from all those political demonstrations 'n' stuff like that..

The highest density of political grafitti..
...the highest density of "politically conscious" people...

Obama makes a wise choice indeed

As per the following report...Obama is indeed making extremely wise decisions..
It shows he is NOT letting his Ego rule his decisions. Impressive indeed :

Source The Hindu :

"

Buffett, Google's Schmidt in Obama's adviser team London, (PTI): US President-elect Barack Obama has appointed a 17-member high-level team of advisers including billionaire investor Warren Buffett and Google Chief Executive Eric Schmidt to guide him in channelising the economy, a media report says. "US President-elect Barack Obama has appointed a team of high-level advisers including billionaire investor Warren Buffett and Google Chief Executive Eric Schmidt to guide his thoughts on the economy ahead of taking office on January 20," the Telegraph report stated. The team, to be called the Transition Economic Advisory Board (TEAB), will meet for the first time in Chicago today to discuss the state of the economy and the prospect of taking early action. Warren Buffett, Chairman and CEO, Berkshire Hathaway, would participate through speakerphone in the meeting. Further, the report stated that Obama might use this opportunity to appoint his first Treasury Secretary. The advisory board has 17 members including former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker, whose name has also been connected with the Treasury job, and former Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin, who would also be at the meeting at the Chicago Hilton today, the daily said. At present, Robert Rubin is Chairman and Director of the Executive Committee of global financial services major Citigroup. Besides, corporate America is also well represented in the team, with Time Warner Chairman Dick Parsons and Xerox Chairman Anne Mulcahy and Schmidt, who was a loyal supporter of Obama during his election campaign, it added. Other members of the board comprise Laura Tyson, one of Obama's key economic aides, former House of Representatives member David Bonior, two former SEC Commissioners Roel Campos and William Donaldson, and Chairman of the Midwest JP Morgan Chase William Daley, the Telegraph report said. Further, TIAA-CREF President and CEO Roger Ferguson, Michigan Governor Jennifer Granholm, Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, Classic Residence by Hyatt CEO Penny Pritzker, Robert Reich and Laura Tyson from the University of California and DE Shaw Managing Director Lawrence Summers are on the board, it added.

A few Indian companies doing real good !

Mainly the Tata group of companies..I've been noticing.

Tata Tea , as well as Tata Power ...in these times of trouble.

Following source article is Business Standard :

"Tata Tea, the world’s second largest branded tea company, said its profit more than tripled because of a one-time gain from forex fluctuation arising out of an overseas deposit made from the sale of a 25 per cent stake in Glaceau.

The profit of the company rose to Rs 229 crore in the three months ended September 30, from Rs 68 crore for the corresponding period last year. The company earned $1 billion last year from selling its stake in Glaceau to Coca-Cola.

The company had earlier said that the money from the sale of Glaceau would be used for retiring debt for the deal ($427 million), other debt on its books and acquisition of beverage companies in the US. "Determining net profit without these gains is difficult and would be inaccurate as we have reported consolidated gains from all our international businesses," said R K Krishna Kumar, vice-chairman, Tata Tea. Signalling troubled times, Tata Tea said its operating profit dropped to Rs 127 crore from Rs 144 crore."

My take : This only shows the LONG-TERM WISDOM of some group of companies...who will ride out the strom irregardless of the BSE troughs..

Read in a leading newspaper..that RJ Tata will benefit irregardless of WHO COMES TO POWER IN THE U.S. That is the mind of a genius.

Indian Stocks touch real low

Indian Stocks, like others touched a real low ...PERCENTAGEWISE...

It's ALWAYS the percent loss that is important..

Source of graph... in.finance.yahoo.com ...Yahoo Finance :




My take is : The FIIs are withdrawing...temporarily investing...WITHDRAWING MAINLY...

So the BSE is falling like anything + "mass psychology" effect + global economic meltdown.

Support should be at 7000...I think. Below that is pure panic-driven numbers..

Congress - CPM alliance..and psephological calculations

This has reference to my earlier posting in this blog.

After Dr. Manmohan Singh has WISELY hinted at a Congress-CPM alliance...my preliminary calculations are as follows:

In the State of West Bengal...both will be beneficiaries. Strategic alliances like leaving Malda & Murshidabad for the INC...will be beneficial to the Congress. This is my prediction, of course.

West Bengal with its 42 seats...According to the last panchayat elections....CPM would perform bad even in the rural areas. But Congress and CPM strategic understanding would turn the tide. In fact...I have even drawn a "demarcation line" across the state of WB....running across Midnapore-Bankura-Hugli-Birbhum....in which the CPM would do surprisingly good...

IFF (meaning If and only If)....

The Western Bloc of rural areas comprising approx. 130 of the 294 Assembly seats...vote for BOTH the CPM and Congress.

The Congress should be given a bit of "concession" for ummm...saving the CPM, me thinks.

Meanwhile..Kerala with its 20 seats...INC + CPM = 19 minimum VERY SAFE it seems.

Disclaimer : I keep changing my auto-forwarding list so often....sometimes in a hurry forget revising the names...hope this doesn't reach the wrong person....hope you go through ALL my blogs 'n' enjoy the new look